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41 Replies to “Game Theory vs. Gut Instinct in Poker Cash Games”

  1. if i had the a8 here on river i bet small 2k his problem is his chip stack cant hurt anyone
    and his overall clownish look at the table ez call even a shove is an ez call once you decided to go that far cant fold
    poker comes down to do i think he has it or not – ivey

  2. If you are completely solid with your odds and probabilities math, with correct statistical knowledge, your instincts will never let you down!
    It's like that ugly feeling you get when danger is near

  3. U know why? The subconscious mind is akin to a supercomputer, it can calculate and process things that we consciously cannot.

    Edit: right after I wrote that u say essentially the same thing, lol

  4. Is raising the turn as a semi-bluff bad here? I was thinking semi-bluff raise the turn. I also knew what your opponent had so it’s very easy to say on my part.

  5. Intuitive play should also be logical, The two are not separate. The problem whoever with what you would call intuition is that it can be polluted, where as solid strategical play is not, only applied incorrectly.

    This is true for all things in life involving intuition. It’s a subconscious database that we store, and we can corrupt it with false positives and false negatives.

    When you see people take a line, and your feeling is they were bluffing, but don’t get confirmation, then you subconsciously store those conditions under a bluff line, so when your brain compares all the bluffs to value bets in that database it has errors in it, if you make too many of those errors, your intuition fails. It’s a cycle, where the more correct confirmations you get, the more likely you are to have the next one be correct also, likewise the opposite is true that the more errors you have made in the past, the more likely your next one will be an error also as the database you subconscious is using is corrupted.

    With that said, your still following a logical pattern to reach those conclusions. The reason GTO has achieved such a following is because anyone can follow it, study it and if applied will make them a great player. The same just isn’t true for intuition, and the other problem is it can’t be studied, everyone also thinks they have good instincts.

    It also goes further than intuition, into assumptions based on certain factors which your making, Like rock, paper, scissors. I’ve 3bet you the last 2 buttons, based on what kind of a player I think you are, the situation and a little ego, I predict the next 3bet I make you will react with X. Some players don’t wait for 3 times for it to occurs to make educated plays, they make adjustments an adjustment before seeing their opponent make theirs, effectively staying 1 step ahead. Some do this successfully and some don’t.

    Teaching people to play with gut feelings and saying “That’s a good way to play sometimes” just isn’t true for a lot of people who have so much bias they couldn’t possibly trust their instincts (most weaker players) – teaching them solid strategy however will definitely help.

    With that said, I think a lot of players use both very well, I like to think I do, most analysis will be done on a GTO front, however I’ve made hero calls and folds, and have a pretty good record on both. That alone doesn’t make me a winning player, strategy and experience does, it does pad the win rate and lower variance when running bad.

  6. I'm an old school Poker Player. I grew up in my grandfather's brick house playing guts. For those of you who don't know what guts is, it's also known as five card draw or on your nerve.
    You don't have any information other than the cards in your hand and the read that you have on the opponent sitting across from you.
    Now all that said I try to incorporate game theory, exploitative play and intuition into my game. This I feel gives me a good balance as I work to fill gaps into my game and improve as a player.
    Any and all help in this regard is quite welcome " as I is poor people" disabled and no income because I'm fighting for my disability.
    Needless to say I am stuck in free poker hell, but while I'm here I might as well focus on my best so rhat when I do get a bankroll. I can take the one skill that I have left and do something.

  7. can you please explain and apply with examples how would a strickly GTO player would do in several situations , pre flop, flop, turn and river , so i could really understand what the hell it, the GTO … thanks

  8. I do have a very basic HUD that displays % of hands played, aggression factor, pre flop raise %, etc… But all i want to know if im up against a TA player or a gambler.
    Depending on how strong I am, i usually fold to TA players.
    But i use my gut to make the final decision using my gut instincts.
    If a player is playing 17% of hands and zero raises pre, and suddenly he makes a 5x raise? I amost never call them except with elite hands.
    If a loose player has been hammering the table with overbets, obvious bluffs, reraises, and just causing chaos they go to my target list. I check raise them and sometimes end up with all the chips in the middle…which i generally try not to do in a
    tourney…but maniacs cant be dealt with any other way.
    They want every decision you make to be about your tournament life.
    So best advice is NEVER BRING A KNIFE TO A GUNFIGHT…because if everyone started with 1500 chips, but this loose maniac somehow has 4k, you are covered and you wont get a 2nd shot.
    Be strong and carry a big gut.

  9. Nothing ever changed in the hand. Once you called the flop and turn I’m not sure how you could fold to that river based on what you put him on. It seems ridiculously simple tbh

  10. Sorry alec that i don't think you really exercised next level poker thinking he gave every tell known that he was bluffing i think the dealer and every player at the table knew it thanks for sharing.

  11. how is A9 your worst hand here? I mean can you even fold anything to his 3-bet? You are raising the river here so you play most of your hands as call, which means…you end up pretty wide on the river in GTO terms…

  12. Logic isn't game theory! Game theory is a science not a philosophy! I bet Alex doesn't know the definition of game theory, I know game theory very well because I took a college course on the subject & I can assure you there is absolutely no game theory mathematics that is applied in this video!

  13. I think you are right, exploitative play should play a role in every player´s game. HOWEVER, many players unfortunately often use this as an excuse to not even study game theory in depth.

  14. The question is a bit hubristic when enough light is shined on it. It doesn't matter how much studying, analysis or effort you direct toward the game, no one is ever going to eliminate the luck element. For those who desperately want to believe luck can be conquered, it is this type of question they might find themselves pondering. The most proficient GTO practioner will never be able to exploit luck. For that we should be thankful.

  15. His mistake not shoving the flop. If you’re gonna gamble don’t pretend to play poker. Alec already decided this guy is a fish, saying he don’t know is kinda being humble and for the sake of analysis. Nobody calling 3 bet with A9s without that fact. River is snap call.

  16. When it got to the river, I think you should have re-raised and put him All In. Considering his stack, compared to the pot size, it's a relatively small price to pay to know for sure. He would have folded (obviously) unless he had ANYTHING.
    Having said that, I tried going all in once like this guy on a bluff and it didn't work 🙁 My guess is you would have folded though.

  17. Staring at the board and the sort of bob-and-weave sway tells me he's winding up for a bluff. You're more likely to stare at your chips if you have it. It's like he's figuring out what he can pretend he has. I think it's a mistake to assume this is "unconscious" or "gut" or "instinct". These are objective signs he's throwing.

  18. didn't you see that neon sign on his forehead while he was -playing with his chips and decided to make it look like a value bet?? I saw it…it said "I GOT NOTHING"….i know I could see the cards…but that's what I would have seen regardless…that guy is not a good poker player…I'm glad you took him.

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